法兴、Eurizon押注日元绝地反击：干预风险隐现 急涨修正或一触即发

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the Japanese yen has increased the likelihood of government intervention in the currency market, suggesting a potential sharp correction in the exchange rate [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The yen has depreciated significantly, reaching a low of 159 yen per US dollar, the lowest since July 2024, driven by speculation around potential early elections in Japan [1] - Investors believe that the political changes may solidify the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's position, paving the way for further fiscal stimulus, which is seen as negative for the yen and Japanese government bonds [1] - Eurizon's CEO Stephen Jen indicated that the risk for the USD/JPY exchange rate is "clearly skewed to the downside," and timely government intervention could trigger a correction [1] - Societe Generale's foreign exchange strategist Kit Juckes noted that a sudden surge in the yen could present an excellent opportunity to short the USD/JPY [1] Group 2: Intervention Thresholds and Market Sentiment - Market experts consider 160 yen per dollar as a potential intervention threshold, although Japanese officials emphasize their focus on excessive volatility rather than specific levels [1] - There is no unified standard for determining "exchange rate anomalies," but a Japanese official indicated that fluctuations of 10 yen per dollar in a month or over 4% in two weeks are considered abnormal [1] - The Bank of Japan acts as the operational body for currency intervention, executing measures through the Ministry of Finance [2] - Current market sentiment is characterized by significant positioning in options products, as traders attempt to interpret price movements ahead of potential official responses [2] Group 3: Speculative Positions and Market Indicators - Since Prime Minister Kishi's tenure began in October last year, there has been speculation that his support for reflation policies may hinder short-term interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, contributing to downward pressure on the yen [5] - Despite the ruling party's majority, Juckes believes that concerns over debt sustainability will prevent aggressive fiscal expansion in the short term, supporting a "buy on dips" strategy for Japanese government bonds and the yen [5] - Data indicates a risk of a short squeeze in the yen, with speculative net short positions having surged in mid-2024, pushing the USD/JPY above 160, followed by a rapid reversal [5] - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that while short positions have recently decreased, they remain at elevated levels [5] - Citigroup's yen pain index, which tracks overall trader sentiment, remains in negative territory, highlighting the crowded nature of current short positions on the yen [6]