外贸展现强大韧性！2025年中国出口同比增长5.5%

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in December 2025 reached 6.6% year-on-year, while imports grew by 5.7%, indicating a positive trend despite external trade tensions [1][5]. Group 1: Export Performance - In 2025, China's total export growth was 5.5%, slightly down from 5.9% in the previous year, while imports remained flat compared to a 1.1% increase in 2024 [2][6]. - The strong export performance is attributed to three main factors: 1. A significant decline of nearly 20% in exports to the U.S. was offset by increased exports to the EU and Belt and Road Initiative countries [2][6]. 2. Upgrades in domestic manufacturing and a surge in global AI investments boosted exports of chips and automobiles, counterbalancing declines in traditional labor-intensive goods [2][6]. 3. Fluctuations in U.S. tariffs led to a "rush to export and import" phenomenon, with U.S. imports rising by 7.4% year-on-year from January to September 2025, supporting global trade growth [2][6]. Group 2: Future Export Outlook - For 2026, a potential decline in export growth is anticipated, with estimates around 1.0%, particularly due to high tariffs on U.S. goods [3][7]. - The U.S. trade representative indicated that a 25% decrease in U.S.-China trade is a step in the right direction, suggesting continued challenges in the U.S. market [3][7]. - Despite trade tensions, resilience in exports is expected due to new demands from emerging markets, global AI investments, and China's strong position in midstream and upstream sectors [3][7]. Group 3: Import Dynamics - Import momentum is likely to be affected by the slowdown in exports, but domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment are expected to support demand for consumer goods and bulk commodities [3][7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key focus for economic policy in 2026 [4][8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The Central Financial Office highlighted the need to stabilize investment, which has been declining, by leveraging government investments and optimizing project implementations [4][8]. - The focus for 2026 will be on real estate, infrastructure, and private investments to enhance overall investment contributions to the economy [4][8].