年度展望丨张建胜：“稳健”与“精打细算”

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for 2026 is characterized by a cautious optimism, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to valuation and investment selection, particularly in the context of a recovering market after a prolonged downturn [1][10]. Market Performance - In 2025, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a slow bull market, with public equity funds averaging over a 30% increase, marking it as a significant year for equities [2]. Market Divergence - The market in 2025 was marked by extreme divergence, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and communication equipment seeing over 60% annual gains, while consumer sectors like food and beverage faced negative returns [3]. AI Investment Trends - The capital expenditure in AI, amounting to hundreds of billions, is primarily concentrated among industry leaders, reflecting a level that corresponds to one or two years of net profits for these giants, indicating resilience despite potential delays in returns [4]. Real Estate and Consumption Recovery - A potential recovery in Chinese real estate and consumer sectors is anticipated, with signs that the most challenging phase for cyclical industries may soon pass, leading to valuation recovery opportunities [5]. Investment Opportunities - The investment landscape for 2026 is expected to broaden, with opportunities not only in non-linear growth sectors like AI but also in cyclical industries that may begin to see valuation corrections [6]. Global Trade Dynamics - Despite geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, China's trade surplus exceeded one trillion dollars in the first eleven months of 2025, showcasing the resilience and global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [7]. Re-globalization of Chinese Companies - Many leading Chinese companies are experiencing a "re-globalization" trend, with over 30% of their revenues coming from overseas markets, often growing faster than domestic operations [8]. Key Investment Directions for 2026 - The main investment focuses for 2026 include: 1. Non-linear growth in AI, particularly in storage and connectivity sectors, with an emphasis on AI application investments [9]. 2. Resource products and high-end manufacturing benefiting from re-industrialization and re-globalization [9]. 3. Valuation recovery opportunities in traditional industries such as chemicals and consumer goods [9]. Investment Mindset - The investment approach for 2026 will prioritize a "steady" mindset, emphasizing the importance of learning from past market experiences and maintaining a disciplined valuation strategy [10].