光大期货0114黄金点评：美通胀数据公布，短期黄金热度不减

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. core inflation has slowed down compared to expectations, impacting gold prices and market sentiment, with geopolitical issues remaining a short-term focus for investors [2][4][5]. Inflation Data - The U.S. December CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with expectations and previous values; the core CPI increased by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [5]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains significant, as indicated by the combination of employment and inflation data [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government has advised citizens to evacuate Iran, highlighting rising geopolitical tensions that are causing investor unease [5]. - Ongoing conflicts involving the U.S. and other regions, such as Greenland and Iran, are contributing to the heightened focus on geopolitical risks [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, gold prices initially surged but then retreated, with COMEX February gold futures closing down by 0.34% and SHFE gold rising by 0.14% [2][4]. - A joint statement from multiple central banks was issued in support of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, responding to pressures from the Trump administration regarding the independence of central banks [5]. Margin Changes - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced changes to the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts, shifting from fixed amounts to a percentage of the contract's nominal value; gold margin will be approximately 5% and silver about 9% [5].