提前大选前景恐加剧日本财政风险 日债再遭猛烈抛售

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has decided to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections on January 23, raising concerns about the potential expansion of economic stimulus and debt levels, which may worsen Japan's fiscal burden [1][2] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged to 2.18%, the highest in 27 years, while the 30-year bond yield reached a record high of 3.52%, reflecting market anxiety over fiscal sustainability [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced significant volatility, opening with a rise of over 3.6% and closing with a gain of 3.1%, while the Japanese yen depreciated to its lowest level since July 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Since taking office, Kishida has faced challenges including a weak yen, inflation above targets, and economic sluggishness, prompting the government to introduce a record economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen [2] - The Bank of Japan has shifted from a long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy to a forward-looking adjustment, with interest rates expected to rise to 0.75% by December 2025, the highest level in 30 years [2] - Concerns about Japan's fiscal situation have intensified, with the country's debt exceeding twice its economic output, leading to increased bond issuance and a higher debt servicing burden due to rising interest rates [2] Group 3 - Kishida emphasized the importance of promoting economic growth over concerns about rising long-term interest rates, stating that the new budget includes significant investments aimed at fostering future growth [3] - The government projects a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.4% and a real wage growth rate of 1.3%, indicating a positive outlook for the economy [3]