（经济观察）2025年中国外贸在压力下“突围”

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's foreign trade is expected to achieve a total import and export value of 45.47 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, with exports reaching 26.99 trillion yuan, a 6.1% increase, despite facing complex global challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - China's import and export value in 2025 is projected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, a record high, with exports contributing 26.99 trillion yuan [1]. - This marks the ninth consecutive year of growth in China's foreign trade, the longest period since joining the WTO [1]. - High-tech product exports reached 5.25 trillion yuan, growing by 13.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth [1]. Group 2: Market Diversification - By 2025, China is expected to engage in trade with 249 countries and regions, with growth in trade with over 190 of them [1]. - China has become the main export destination for 79 countries and regions, an increase of three from the previous year [2]. - Trade diversification is identified as a long-term strategy for China to adapt to external environmental changes [2]. Group 3: Future Challenges and Strategies - The external environment for China's foreign trade is anticipated to remain "severe and complex," with increased uncertainties expected in 2026 [2][3]. - The Chinese government plans to strengthen trade stability efforts, promote innovative trade development, and optimize goods trade while encouraging service exports and digital trade [3]. - A new Foreign Trade Law will take effect on March 1, 2026, enhancing the legal framework for cross-border service trade and showcasing a commitment to high-level opening up [3]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - China's advantages in institutional, market, industrial systems, and talent resources are becoming more pronounced, enhancing its resilience against risks [4]. - The combination of robust policies, a large market potential, and a complete industrial system is expected to support stable growth in foreign trade [3][4].