国内库存累积不及预期 沪锡期货主力合约触及涨停

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with tin futures reaching a historical high of 413,170 yuan/ton, up 8% [1] Supply Side - Tin production in Myanmar's Wa State is gradually recovering, while the smelting plant operating rate in Yunnan remains high at 87.09%, unchanged from the previous week. However, low processing fees for tin ore have led to reduced willingness for further production [2] - In Jiangxi, smelting plants are facing a shortage of recycled raw materials, resulting in continued low levels of refined tin production, with some companies further reducing output last week [2] Demand Side - Demand is uneven across the industry, with stable growth in the electric vehicle and AI computing sectors, while traditional electricity and home appliance sectors are experiencing weak order demand. Additionally, solar photovoltaic installations have seen a significant year-on-year decline [2] Market Outlook - Despite tin prices reaching historical highs, the "invisible inventory" of domestic tin mines and ingots is relatively depleted, with inventory accumulation falling short of expectations and even showing signs of depletion. Current inventory levels remain in the mid-range historically [2] - The diverse end-use applications of tin result in lower sensitivity to price increases, indicating that the natural constraints on prices are relatively light [2]