老虎证券预测恒指今年有望3万点 沪指目标5000点

Core Viewpoint - Tiger Securities projects that the Hang Seng Index may rise to 30,000 points and the Shanghai Composite Index may challenge the 5,000-point mark in 2026, driven by a more optimistic policy environment in China and active capital in the A-share market [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic cycles of China and the US are misaligned, with a gradual shift towards a more optimistic policy environment in China [1] - The A-share market is experiencing increased capital activity, supported by a stronger RMB and interest rate policies that stabilize the real estate market [1] - Fiscal stimulus has ample room to support the continuation of a bull market in Greater China [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The divergence between the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite Index is attributed to national strategies promoting hard technology industries, with A-shares focusing on sectors like semiconductors and aerospace, while Hong Kong stocks excel in internet platforms, new consumption, and biotechnology [1] Group 3: US Market Insights - Tiger Securities views the S&P 500 as overvalued, with the earnings growth of seven major tech giants being the main driver for index gains, but warns of valuation expansion risks for non-leading stocks [1] - The firm suggests using options strategies to hedge against potential pullback pressures, highlighting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace and fluctuating inflation data as key risk factors [1] Group 4: IPO Market in Hong Kong - The number of new stock subscriptions in the Hong Kong IPO market surged by 30 times year-on-year in 2025, with subscription amounts increasing by 150 times [1] - If market sentiment continues to improve this year, more quality companies are expected to list in Hong Kong, making the annual IPO performance promising [1]