机构称26年A股或将呈现先周期成长、后消费接力的行情节奏，聚焦港股通消费ETF华夏（513230）布局机会

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's consumer sector is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513230) showing a minor increase of nearly 0.5% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector in the Hong Kong stock market is seeing mixed performance, with stocks like 康耐特光学 (Kangnai Optical), 海底捞 (Haidilao), 农夫山泉 (Nongfu Spring), 老铺黄金 (Laopu Gold), 古茗 (Guming), and 布鲁可 (Bluker) showing notable gains, while 高鑫零售 (Gao Xin Retail), 同程旅行 (Tongcheng Travel), 中烟香港 (China Tobacco Hong Kong), and 思摩尔国际 (Smoore International) are among the top decliners [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures - On January 13, the Shanghai Municipal Government released a set of measures aimed at enhancing service quality and boosting consumption across six key sectors, including finance, information services, transportation, cultural and entertainment services, life services, and inspection and certification, comprising a total of 28 specific initiatives [1]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the A-share market is expected to follow a growth pattern starting with cyclical growth and transitioning to consumer-driven growth by 2026, drawing parallels to the post-supply-side reform period in 2015 [1]. - The firm also highlighted that the "anti-involution" reforms, which will be fully implemented after the Central Financial Committee meeting in July 2025, are anticipated to narrow the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and accelerate industrial enterprise profits, setting the stage for cyclical styles to outperform defensive styles and laying the groundwork for future consumer market growth [1]. Group 4: ETF Overview - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, effectively bundling leading consumer stocks across various sectors, including 泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart), 百胜中国 (Yum China), 安踏体育 (Anta Sports), and 农夫山泉 (Nongfu Spring) [1].