供应宽松 一季度花生价格或延续偏弱态势

Core Viewpoint - The overall supply of new peanuts in the 2025 production season is expected to be loose, with significant price differences due to varying quality across regions. The demand from downstream sectors is primarily driven by oil peanuts, while the overall peanut prices may experience a slight increase in the first quarter before continuing a weak trend [1][9]. Price Disparity - The price fluctuations of peanuts in 2025 have widened, with new peanuts starting to be listed in August. The prices initially rose but then fell due to delayed harvests in Henan, leading to lower prices in that region. For instance, the purchase price of white sand peanuts in the Zhu Ma Dian area dropped below 7000 yuan/ton [2][4]. - As of December 31, 2025, the average price of white sand peanuts in Zhu Ma Dian was 8238 yuan/ton, down 7.04% year-on-year, while in the Fuxin area, it was 8525 yuan/ton, down 6.96% [2]. Supply Dynamics - The overall supply of new peanuts is slightly loose, with varying inventory depletion rates across regions. By the end of December, the inventory ratio in Henan was approximately 61.48%, an increase of 3.94 percentage points year-on-year, while in Liaoning, it was about 48.00%, a decrease of 17.10 percentage points [6]. - The trading of commodity peanuts is slow, with some inventory pressure noted. However, the demand for oil peanuts is increasing as large oil factories begin to purchase raw materials [8]. Market Trends - In December, large oil factories started to purchase raw materials, leading to an increase in oil consumption. However, the overall supply of oil peanuts is sufficient, which may limit the need for price increases [8]. - The wholesale market has seen a slight recovery in sales, with a significant increase in the outflow of goods compared to last year. However, the market remains influenced by the consumption environment, and the purchasing time may be shorter than in previous years [8][9]. Price Forecast - It is anticipated that peanut prices may experience a slight increase in the first quarter of 2026 before continuing a weak trend. The expected price range for high-quality white sand peanuts in Zhu Ma Dian is between 6700-7400 yuan/ton, while in Liaoning, it is projected to be between 8800-9400 yuan/ton [9].