整体需求难有支撑 烧碱期价暂时缺少向上驱动

Core Viewpoint - The domestic caustic soda futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a downward trend due to weak demand and high supply pressure [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 14, the main contract for caustic soda opened at 2126.0 CNY/ton, with a closing price reflecting a decline of 2.33% [1] - The spot price of caustic soda on January 13 was reported at 722 CNY/ton, down by 4 CNY/ton or 0.55% from the previous day [1] - Over the past week, caustic soda prices have decreased by 10 CNY/ton, a drop of 1.37%, and over the past month, the decline has been 26 CNY/ton, or 3.48% [1] Group 2: Futures Positioning - As of January 13, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 198,000 long positions and 224,400 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.88 [1] - The net position was -26,400 contracts, a decrease of 2,085 contracts compared to the previous day [1] - The number of caustic soda futures warehouse receipts recorded on January 13 was 120, down by 10 from the previous trading day [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - Demand for caustic soda is expected to remain weak due to an oversupply of alumina and seasonal declines in non-aluminum downstream demand [2] - The winter season typically sees maintenance in chlor-alkali enterprises, leading to high supply pressure and a need for price reductions before the Spring Festival [2] - Current inventory levels for caustic soda are high, with a 25% increase compared to the same period last year, indicating a lack of upward price drivers [3]