韩国一年级新生数量两年下降15%，创新低

Core Insights - The South Korean Ministry of Education reported that the number of first-grade students nationwide will fall below 300,000 in March, marking a historical low [1] - The number of first-grade students is projected to be approximately 298,000, a decrease of about 15.5% from 353,000 in 2024 [1] - The Ministry revised its previous forecast, which anticipated that the number of first-grade students would not drop below 300,000 until 2027, based on changes in registered population and enrollment rates [1] Enrollment Trends - The number of first-grade students was around 710,000 in 1999 and has been declining steadily, dropping to approximately 468,000 in 2009 [1] - Over the past decade, the number fluctuated around 400,000 until a sharp decline to 353,000 in 2024 and further to 324,000 in 2025 [1] - By 2031, the number of new students is expected to decrease to 220,000, representing a 32% decline compared to the anticipated enrollment for this year [1] Regional Impact - It is projected that by 2031, most of the 17 metropolitan areas in South Korea will see their first-grade student numbers fall below 10,000 [1] - The Ministry anticipates that the total number of students in elementary, middle, and high schools will drop below 5 million by the 2026 academic year [1] - Following this trend, the total number of students in primary and secondary education is expected to fall below 4 million before 2031 [1]