东海期货宏观数据观察：12月出口超预期回升，贸易顺差继续上升

Core Insights - China's total import and export value in December 2025 reached USD 601.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, surpassing the previous value of 4.3% and showing a rise of 1.9% [1] - Exports amounted to USD 357.78 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 5.9% [1][8] - Imports totaled USD 243.64 billion, increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 0.9% and the previous value of 1.9% [1][26] - The trade surplus was USD 114.14 billion, up 8.52% year-on-year, exceeding the expected USD 113.6 billion and the previous value of USD 111.68 billion [1][34] Export Analysis - December's export growth was driven by a significant rebound in export prices and an increase in export volumes [2][25] - The main contributors to export growth included ASEAN countries, the EU, and emerging markets, with a notable increase in exports of automobiles and integrated circuits [2][10] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 30.01%, while exports to ASEAN and Africa continued to show strong growth [10][25] Import Analysis - December's import growth was primarily due to increased demand for raw materials and high-tech products, with imports of integrated circuits and crude oil showing significant increases [26][30] - The total import value of USD 243.64 billion reflects a recovery in domestic demand, particularly for essential commodities [26][31] - The import structure showed that machinery and electronic products accounted for the largest share, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [30][31] Trade Balance Insights - The trade surplus continued to rise, supported by strong export performance, particularly in automobiles and auto parts [34][40] - The trade deficit in crude oil and integrated circuits remains significant, indicating ongoing challenges in balancing trade [34][40] - Overall, the trade dynamics suggest a stable external demand environment, with expectations for continued support for exports from emerging markets and the Belt and Road Initiative [3][40]