张尧浠:美CPI弱于预期 金价维持看涨前景不变

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, reaching a high before retreating, but maintained a bullish outlook due to a lack of sustained bearish expectations in the fundamentals [1][11]. Market Performance - On January 13, gold opened at $4603.39 per ounce, peaked at $4634.43, and closed at $4586.43, with a daily range of $64.69 and a decline of $16.96, or 0.37% [1][11]. - The market was influenced by a cautious sentiment, with the unexpected cooling of the U.S. December CPI leading traders to bet on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in April, which initially pushed gold prices to a new high [3][13]. Economic Indicators - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. November retail sales, PPI, and third-quarter current account figures, with expectations leaning towards a bearish impact on gold prices [5][15]. - If the economic results exceed expectations, gold may face a pullback to support levels, while weaker results could lead to increased volatility [6][15]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks and rising central bank purchases, alongside increasing fiscal debt, are contributing to a solid foundation for gold's upward trajectory [6][15]. - The market anticipates approximately two interest rate cuts later this year, reinforcing the bullish sentiment for gold [6][15]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold has regained strength, surpassing previous resistance levels, and if this momentum continues, it could open up a new bull market with potential gains exceeding 30% [9][18]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $4590 and $4560, with resistance at $4640 and $4675 [10][19]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for gold in the first half of the year, suggesting that the price could reach $5000, viewing it as a psychological barrier rather than a ceiling [7][16]. - The current market dynamics reflect a collective vote on the trust in the old world order and the reset of the monetary system, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment [7][16].