瑞银长期主题“调仓”：押注数字消费者与赋能技术，暂避基因疗法、数字健康

Core Insights - UBS identifies five long-term investment themes that currently present the most attractive opportunities: Digital Consumers, Empowering Technologies, Diversity and Equality, Family Businesses, and Exploring New Frontiers [1] Group 1: Digital Consumers - The younger generation, as digital natives, has different consumption patterns compared to their parents, influencing their behaviors [2] - The theme ranks first among UBS's long-term investment themes due to high quality metrics, involving companies with strong balance sheets and high returns on invested capital [2] - The theme benefits from the robust performance of the technology sector driven by AI trends, although it is noted that valuations are relatively high [2] Group 2: Empowering Technologies - UBS identifies five key empowering technologies: AI, AR/VR, Big Data, Blockchain, and other disruptive technologies, which are expected to transform various industries [3] - The market size for these technologies is projected to grow from $287 billion in 2022 to $3.2 trillion by 2030, with AI expected to account for 90% of this growth [3] - The theme maintains a strong position in UBS's long-term investment themes due to its high momentum score, particularly favoring the information technology sector [3] Group 3: Diversity and Equality - UBS anticipates improvements in global regulatory frameworks for information disclosure and fairness, which could enhance GDP over the next decade [4] - Companies that promote diversity and equality throughout their value chains are expected to perform well in the long term [4] - The theme remains a top investment choice due to favorable valuations and quality scores, with a balanced distribution across various industries [5] Group 4: Family Businesses - Family businesses account for two-thirds of global enterprises and contribute over 70% of global GDP, providing significant employment [6] - UBS estimates that family businesses represent 20-30% of global stock market value, benefiting from conservative financial management and capital discipline [6] - The theme is expected to leverage economic recovery, particularly in Europe, where industrial activity is projected to improve by 2026 [7] Group 5: Exploring New Frontiers - Emerging and frontier economies are seen as key drivers of global GDP growth over the next decade, with demographic factors playing a crucial role [8] - UBS believes that these markets offer attractive returns and diversification opportunities, despite being inherently riskier [8] - The increasing U.S. fiscal deficit and a weakening dollar are making emerging markets more appealing for investors seeking to diversify away from U.S. assets [8] Group 6: Short-term Headwinds for Gene Therapy and Digital Health - Gene therapy and digital health themes currently rank low in UBS's quantitative model, facing short-term headwinds and lower valuation attractiveness [9] - The biotechnology sector, particularly small-cap firms, is experiencing significant capital acquisition challenges, impacting their operational environment [10] - Despite the potential of AI applications in healthcare, the current landscape lacks scalable, data-driven growth drivers, leading to a cautious outlook for these themes [11]