智通财经网·2026-01-14 09:05Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is shifting from a "price war" to a "value war," with market share expected to concentrate among companies that offer better service quality, stronger management capabilities, and healthier networks [1] Policy Aspects - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, effectively curbing vicious competition, with multiple provinces raising express delivery prices. From August to November, the single ticket revenue of A-share "Tongda" express companies has shown a continuous upward trend [2] - The "social insurance new regulations" are anticipated to enhance cost-price transmission paths, potentially leading to increased labor costs in the express delivery industry, which may be passed on to consumers through price hikes [2] Industry Aspects - With the growth rate of express delivery volume slowing, value competition is becoming crucial. The rational return of express prices and the reduction of small parcel trends are expected, with the industry volume growth rate forecasted to decrease [3] - The expected growth rates for express delivery volume are 13.7% year-on-year in 2025 and around 8% in 2026, emphasizing the importance of "cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" for companies to gain market share [3] Cost Reduction Potential - In the transit segment, the marginal cost reduction effects from scale are diminishing, with major franchise express companies focusing on optimizing routes and improving sorting efficiency. As of H1 2025, the single ticket transit cost for "Tongda" express companies has dropped to approximately 0.60 yuan [4] - In the last-mile delivery segment, which significantly impacts user experience and logistics efficiency, there remains substantial potential for cost optimization through automation and innovation. The cost burden for new technologies is primarily borne by franchisees, making the performance of these networks critical [4]