Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, supply expectations, and demand dynamics in various sectors [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai nickel futures market saw a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 140,940 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% [1] - The average price of nickel in the Changjiang market increased by 800 yuan to 146,800 yuan/ton, while the average price for Guangdong's nickel rose by 1,750 yuan to 150,900 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. December core CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the lowest in nearly five years, strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - The anticipated liquidity from the Federal Reserve is driving funds back into commodities, providing valuation support for nickel and other base metals [2] Group 3: Supply Expectations - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce its nickel ore production quota by approximately 34% by 2026, raising concerns about future raw material supply [3] - Major producers are pausing some mining operations due to approval issues, further heightening supply concerns [3] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Despite being in a seasonal lull, the long-term trend towards high nickel content in batteries remains unchanged, indicating robust demand for ternary batteries [3] - The stainless steel sector is experiencing a decrease in social inventory and a rebound in production, contributing to short-term support for nickel prices [3] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile but biased towards strength in the short term due to uncertainties in Indonesian policies and macro liquidity expectations [4] - The market is characterized by a conflict between strong expectations and weak realities, necessitating close monitoring of Indonesia's quota policy and actual demand recovery [4]
长江有色：14日镍价小涨 刚需小单主导长协锁定主流
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-14 09:21