长江有色：14日铅价小涨 持货方惜售但补库意愿存在

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a price increase driven by a combination of macroeconomic sentiment, industrial policies, and fundamental factors, despite external pressures such as a strong dollar and stock market corrections [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 17,315 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan or 0.32% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai lead 2602 contract was 23,509 lots, with open interest decreasing by 4,586 lots to 30,400 lots [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at $2,055.5, down $4.5 [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Domestic spot lead prices showed a slight increase, with the average price for ccmn Longjiang 1 lead at 17,310 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [1]. - Guangdong's spot 1 lead reported an average price of 17,335 yuan per ton, an increase of 75 yuan [1]. - The current spot lead market quotes range between 17,150 and 17,385 yuan per ton, indicating a discount of 75 to 40 yuan per ton compared to the Shanghai lead 2504 contract [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a comprehensive contraction, with domestic high-altitude mines entering winter breaks and smelting plants in Hunan and Yunnan undergoing maintenance, leading to reduced output [3]. - Recycled lead production is hindered by historically low inventory of waste battery raw materials and difficulties in winter collection [3]. - Demand remains robust, particularly from lead-acid battery enterprises resuming operations post-holiday, with traditional demand from automotive and industrial storage sectors stable [3]. Group 4: Industry Structure and Trends - The industry chain structure is optimizing, with profits concentrating upstream; the mining sector remains tight while the smelting industry is transitioning towards green recycling [3]. - Leading companies are demonstrating strong performance, such as Yuguang Group achieving over 100 billion yuan in revenue and accelerating its transition into new materials [3]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a strong price trend in the short term, with a core range of 17,300 to 17,500 yuan per ton, while monitoring the resumption of production at smelters and downstream acceptance of high prices [3].