Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4634.33 per ounce on January 14 but quickly retreated to around $4586, raising investor concerns about the potential end of the gold bull market [1][5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. December Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, both below analyst expectations [1][5] - Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, also underperforming against forecasts [1][5] - The market anticipates two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with a 27.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in March [1][5] Market Reactions - Despite the favorable inflation data for gold bulls, the market's reaction was mixed, indicating concerns about economic cooling and the Fed's cautious approach [2][6] - U.S. Treasury yields saw a mild decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.175% and the 30-year yield at 4.823%, but this did not translate into strong support for gold [7] - The breakeven yields for five-year and ten-year inflation-protected securities rose to 2.368% and 2.3%, suggesting that the market expects future inflation to be manageable, reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [7] Currency Impact - The U.S. dollar index rebounded by 0.3% to 99.18, bolstered by strong employment data from the previous week [3][7] - Following the inflation data release, the dollar initially dipped but quickly regained strength, enhancing its attractiveness against other currencies [3][7] - A strong dollar increases the holding cost of gold priced in dollars, pressuring international buyers and contributing to the price drop from record highs [3][7]
杨华曌:美联储降息预期与美元强势交织 黄金价格为何冲高后回落
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-14 09:48