【黑金重磅】焦煤期权上市首日策略分享

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the upcoming listing of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is influenced by supply and demand dynamics, particularly the high import volume of Mongolian coal and its impact on coking coal prices [1][3] - On the supply side, the average daily import volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been high, reaching 1204 trucks per day after the New Year, despite a slight decrease compared to late 2025, indicating a strong supply that may suppress coking coal prices [1] - The latest daily import data has exceeded 1500 trucks, suggesting that the potential high supply of imported Mongolian coal will continue to limit price increases for coking coal [1][3] Group 2 - On the demand side, the current pig iron production may have reached a temporary low, and while production increases are not significant, the winter storage demand for coking coal is expected to provide some support before the Spring Festival [1] - However, indications of a warmer winter this year may limit the space for further winter storage replenishment, making it difficult to create a sustained rally in prices [1] - The recent price of the coking coal 2605 contract peaked at 1246 yuan/ton, showing a slight premium over the cost of Mongolian coal, indicating limited potential for further price breakthroughs in a market with insufficient supply [3]