Core Viewpoint - The domestic ketone market is experiencing a recovery phase due to easing supply-demand tensions and strong market sentiment, with prices at a five-year low, leading to a potential upward trend in the industry [1][4]. Supply Side - As of early January 2026, the price of ketone in East China is around 6300-6350 RMB/ton, while in South China it is approximately 6450-6500 RMB/ton [1][4]. - In December 2025, major manufacturers in Guangdong faced low operational rates due to upstream maintenance, but operations have since normalized, although demand remains stable with core customers [4]. - Shandong manufacturers have maintained low operational rates, and supply pressure is minimal due to stable contracts with other suppliers [4]. Demand Side - The demand environment has improved since late last year, particularly in South China, driven by favorable market conditions and strong sentiment from crude oil and related products [5]. - There is an expectation of improved overseas demand, with some solvent sectors showing signs of recovery, which may enhance export opportunities [5]. - Despite the positive outlook, the overall demand recovery faces challenges due to a sluggish macroeconomic environment [5]. Cost Side - Domestic ketone prices have remained at low levels, with minimal fluctuations in raw material costs, leading to thin profit margins for major companies [5]. - Sellers are inclined to raise prices to alleviate cost pressures, as holding costs are relatively high [5]. Market Outlook - The ketone industry is expected to maintain a strong position in late January, although the extent of the increase remains uncertain [6]. - Anticipated maintenance at a major plant in Guangdong may tighten supply further, while pre-holiday replenishment expectations could support prices [6]. - However, demand may weaken as the holiday approaches, and geopolitical factors could impact overseas demand recovery [6].
国内丁酮顺利筑底 春节前谨慎观望反弹空间
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2026-01-14 09:55