成交破8万宗，内地买家占1/4：香港楼市回暖

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a long-awaited recovery driven by a combination of factors including the comprehensive "de-spicy" policy, interest rate cuts, stock market wealth effects, economic growth, favorable policies, rising rents, and decreasing inventory [3][18][28]. Market Performance - In 2025, the total number of property transactions in Hong Kong reached 80,702, marking an 18.7% increase year-on-year and the highest level in four years [5][20]. - The total transaction value amounted to 614.28 billion HKD, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [5][20]. - Residential property transactions accounted for 62,832 cases, with a total value of 519.83 billion HKD, showing increases of 18.3% and 14.4% respectively [7][20]. Inventory and Demand - As of the end of 2025, the inventory of unsold residential properties in Hong Kong was 18,400 units, down approximately 15% from 21,700 units at the end of 2024, marking a continuous decline for 11 months [7][22]. - The recovery in transaction volume is changing the supply-demand dynamics in the market, indicating a sustained release of demand [7][22]. Policy Impact - The key driver for the current transaction recovery is the relaxation of policies, particularly the cancellation of the buyer's stamp duty for non-permanent residents, which previously imposed up to 30% additional tax burdens on mainland buyers [8][23]. - The Hong Kong government also raised the property value cap for a fixed stamp duty from 3 million HKD to 4 million HKD, significantly reducing transaction costs for mid-to-low priced residential properties [8][23]. Mainland Buyer Activity - In 2025, the number of registered transactions by mainland buyers in Hong Kong's residential market reached 13,906, a 14.1% increase from 12,190 in 2024, with a total value of 137.9 billion HKD, up 3.8% [9][24]. - This indicates that one in four residential properties sold in Hong Kong was purchased by mainland buyers [10][24]. Buyer Demographics - The current influx of mainland buyers is characterized by a clear segmentation, with new families under talent schemes preferring smaller, conveniently located properties [11][26]. - High-net-worth individuals view Hong Kong real estate as a stable asset for cross-border investment, with a significant preference for luxury properties [12][27]. Future Outlook - The forecast for the Hong Kong real estate market in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a 10% to 15% increase in property prices and a total residential transaction volume of 71,000 units [13][28]. - The market is anticipated to benefit from a recovering financial sector, rising rents, and continued interest from both local and mainland investors [13][28].