GTC泽汇资本:黄金真实估值或达数万美元

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to reassess the core role of gold in the monetary system as global gold prices approach the $5,000 per ounce mark, suggesting that if gold were to support global circulating currencies, its "real" price would far exceed current market levels [1][2]. Group 1: Gold's Role in Monetary System - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves at an unprecedented rate, reflecting deep concerns about the long-term stability of fiat currencies and indicating that gold is gradually returning to the visual center of global reserve standards [1][2]. - GTC ZEHUI Capital's analysis indicates that if gold were to fully correspond to the base money (M0), its theoretical price should be around $39,210 per ounce; to cover broad money (M2), the implied gold price would need to reach an astonishing $184,211 [3]. Group 2: Regional Economic Performance - Developed economies like the UK and Japan are in a high-leverage state due to a severe disconnect between money issuance and gold reserves, which could lead to significant depreciation pressures on their currencies if the global financial order is restructured [4]. - In contrast, emerging markets such as Russia and Kazakhstan, by accumulating substantial gold reserves, demonstrate strong fiscal defensive capabilities, marking a subtle shift in global power dynamics [4]. - By 2026, the world is expected to enter a new fiscal era, with debt accumulation forcing developed countries to continue "printing money" to maintain liquidity, leading to a re-evaluation of gold's premium logic from a risk-hedging sentiment to a reassessment of systemic solvency [4].