日本当局拉响干预警报！日元触及18个月新低后小幅反弹

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been experiencing a significant decline, recently hitting a low of 159.45 yen per dollar, prompting warnings from Japanese officials about potential market interventions to stabilize the currency [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The yen's recent depreciation is attributed to speculation surrounding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's potential early election, with expectations that his party, the Liberal Democratic Party, could gain more votes [3][4]. - The dollar-yen exchange rate has shown volatility, with a recent drop of 0.31%, settling at 158.61 yen per dollar [1]. - Japanese officials have expressed concerns over excessive currency fluctuations, emphasizing that any intervention would aim to prevent sudden market volatility rather than target specific exchange rates [3][4]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Responses - Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and top foreign exchange officials have warned against speculative trading, indicating that they are prepared to respond to excessive volatility [3][6]. - Former Bank of Japan policy board member Masayoshi Amamiya suggested that the central bank might raise interest rates as early as April due to concerns over Kishida's fiscal policies [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank's rate hike plans remain unchanged despite market fluctuations, with expectations for a potential rate increase around June [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts from Eurizon SLJ Capital and Societe Generale have noted that the yen's decline increases the likelihood of government intervention, which could lead to a sharp correction in the exchange rate [4]. - Observers believe that if the government intervenes at the right moment, it could trigger a significant upward movement in the yen [4].