达沃斯论坛“前哨”报告：地缘政治经济对抗跃升头号威胁，全球或进入“动荡两年”

Core Viewpoint - The World Economic Forum's survey indicates that by 2026, global conditions will increasingly be threatened by trade disputes and geopolitical conflicts, with the upcoming meeting in Switzerland focusing on these issues [1][3]. Group 1: Risks Identified - Respondents highlighted "geoeconomic confrontation" and "state-based armed conflict" as the two primary risks, aligning with the geopolitical tone of the upcoming Davos meeting [3]. - The survey reflects decision-makers' anxiety over Trump's aggressive trade and geopolitical tactics, which could intimidate both allies and adversaries, leading to retaliatory actions from sanctioned countries [4]. Group 2: Survey Insights - The report, based on a survey conducted from August 12 to September 22, involved global leaders and experts from academia, business, government, international organizations, and civil society [5]. - Half of the respondents expect a "turbulent" outlook in the next two years, a significant increase compared to the previous year's report, with concerns about economic risks, including recession, inflation, and asset bubbles [8]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - Key figures, including Trump and other G7 leaders, will be the focus of the upcoming meeting, with Trump scheduled to speak on Wednesday afternoon [10].