2026年前11天，新车零售销量同比下降超三成

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a decline in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, but is expected to improve as local subsidy policies are implemented [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January 1 to 11, 2026, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 328,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 32% and a month-on-month decline of 42% [1]. - NEV retail sales during the same period were 117,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 67% [1]. - The average daily retail sales of new cars in January 2024 were 55,600 units, which decreased to 44,100 units in 2025, and further declined to approximately 30,000 units in 2026 [1]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Penetration - The penetration rate of NEVs has significantly decreased, with a retail penetration rate of 35.5% for passenger cars from January 1 to 11 [3]. - The decline in sales is attributed to the end of the NEV purchase tax exemption policy, making the weak retail performance in January understandable [3]. Group 3: Subsidy Policies - Various regions have initiated new rounds of automotive consumption subsidies, including Jinan, Luoyang, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [3]. - Jinan has allocated 50 million yuan for a subsidy program, while Hangzhou's districts have introduced subsidies totaling 30 million yuan and 25 million yuan, with individual buyers eligible for up to 6,000 yuan per vehicle [3]. - Shanghai's Jing'an District will launch a consumption subsidy program on January 15, offering up to 4,000 yuan per vehicle, which can be combined with other subsidies for a maximum of 24,000 yuan [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The January sales are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase due to the "opening red" sales strategy and the influence of the upcoming Spring Festival in February [4]. - Some companies still have a significant number of orders pending delivery, indicating potential for sales growth [4].