MSCI Inc. (MSCI): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - MSCI Inc. is viewed positively due to its strong fundamentals and consistent revenue growth, despite recent stock underperformance [1][3]. Company Overview - MSCI Inc. provides essential decision support tools and solutions for the investment community, including indexes for various financial products like ETFs and mutual funds [2]. Recent Performance - MSCI shares have decreased approximately 14.5% over the past year and only increased about 8% over the last three years, underperforming the S&P 500 [3]. - The company's revenue growth has outpaced share price performance, indicating improved valuation despite limited stock appreciation [3]. Financial Growth - Revenue grew from approximately $1.7 billion in 2020 to an estimated $2.86 billion by the end of 2024, reflecting nearly two decades of steady expansion [4]. - Annual revenue growth has typically ranged between 8% and 12% since around 2015, supported by a diversified platform and high client retention rates near 95% [4]. Market Dynamics - Recent stock weakness is attributed to a slowdown in growth rather than business deterioration, with revenue growth slowing to about 7% over the trailing twelve months [5]. - MSCI's trailing P/E is around 34, which is below historical levels that often reached the 40s or higher [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts project approximately 12% annual earnings growth through 2029, indicating attractive long-term return potential [5]. - Recent positive developments include a modest increase in 2025 free cash flow guidance and several product launches across various sectors [5].