PFE Market Cap Falls More Than $7B in a Month: How to Play the Stock

Core Insights - Pfizer's stock has declined nearly 5% in a month, resulting in a loss of $7.3 billion in market capitalization due to disappointing financial guidance for 2026 [1][10] Financial Guidance - Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, a decline from the revised 2025 revenue expectation of around $62 billion [2] - Adjusted earnings per share for 2026 are projected to be in the range of $2.80-$3.00, down from the 2025 expected range of $3.00 and $3.15 [3] Oncology Business - Pfizer is a leading player in oncology, with oncology sales accounting for approximately 28% of total revenues [4][5] - Oncology revenues increased by 7% in the first nine months of 2025, driven by products like Xtandi and Padcev [5][10] - The company aims to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines by 2030 [5] Product Development and Acquisitions - Pfizer is expanding its product labels and has in-licensed rights to develop new oncology treatments, including a dual PD-1 and VEGF inhibitor [6][7] - Non-COVID operational revenues are improving, with new and acquired products expected to deliver double-digit growth in 2026 [8] - Pfizer invested approximately $1.6 billion in business development transactions in 2025, including the acquisition of Metsera [9] COVID Product Sales Decline - Sales of COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are declining due to lower vaccination and infection rates [12][14] - Pfizer anticipates COVID revenues to be around $5 billion in 2026, down from about $6.5 billion in 2025 [10][14] Upcoming Challenges - Pfizer faces significant revenue impacts from the loss of exclusivity for key products between 2026 and 2030, expected to reduce sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026 [15] - The redesign of Medicare Part D under the Inflation Reduction Act is also expected to negatively affect revenues [16] Stock Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has underperformed compared to the industry and the S&P 500, losing 4.8% over the past year [17] - The stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 8.36, significantly lower than the industry average of 17.81 [19] Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has decreased from $3.15 to $3.02 per share over the past 60 days, reflecting a pessimistic outlook [22][26]