AI 浪潮冲击创意软件巨头，华尔街对 Adobe 评级降至十余年最低

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's attitude towards Adobe is becoming increasingly pessimistic as analysts express concerns about the company's competitiveness in the new technology cycle driven by artificial intelligence [1][4]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Oppenheimer downgraded Adobe's stock rating to "in line with the market," citing competition from AI firms like OpenAI as a factor weakening growth prospects [1][4]. - The consensus rating for Adobe has dropped to 3.91, the lowest since 2013, reflecting a significant decline in market confidence [1][4]. - Multiple institutions have downgraded Adobe's rating in January, with BMO Capital Markets highlighting intensified competition in the creative software market and Jefferies noting that the positive impact of AI on performance has yet to materialize [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Stock Movement - Adobe's stock fell by 2.6% on January 13, with a year-to-date decline of 6.4%, and a cumulative drop of over 45% since the end of 2023 following two consecutive years of significant declines in 2024 and 2025 [1][4]. - In contrast, the software sector ETF has risen nearly 30%, with major companies like Microsoft and Oracle viewed as beneficiaries of AI, while the Nasdaq 100 index has increased by over 50% [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - Adobe is seen as a representative case of the pressures faced by "software as a service" companies due to the rapid penetration of AI services, leading to concerns about demand diversion and compressed growth potential [6]. - Goldman Sachs directly assigned a "sell" rating to Adobe, indicating a clear shift in sentiment, with analyst Gabriela Borges suggesting that AI is democratizing design tools, limiting the expansion of Adobe's core professional user base [6].