国内棉价持续上涨 内外价差显著扩大

Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton price in China is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, showing a trend of "stability followed by decline, then recovery" due to various factors including U.S. tariffs and domestic consumption policies [1] Group 1: Domestic Cotton Price Trends - In 2025, the overall domestic cotton price index is projected to fluctuate, with a minimum drop to 14,100 CNY/ton and a maximum rise to 15,609 CNY/ton during the year [1] - The average annual price for the cotton price index is expected to be 14,903 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1] - By December, domestic cotton prices continued to rise, supported by favorable macro policies and a strong textile market, reaching a peak of 15,556 CNY/ton [2] Group 2: Futures Market Dynamics - The futures market showed a bullish trend with increased participation, as the main contract CF2605 rose from 13,760 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 14,550 CNY/ton by the end [4][5] - The average settlement price for the main Zheng cotton contract was 14,009 CNY/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 467 CNY [5] Group 3: Long Staple Cotton Demand and Pricing - Demand for long staple cotton was weak, leading to a slight price decline, with the price for 137-grade long staple cotton at 24,960 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY from the previous month [7] - The average transaction price for 137-grade long staple cotton was 24,896 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 104 CNY [7] Group 4: International Market Conditions - The international cotton market faced challenges, with prices initially declining before a slight rebound, resulting in a widening price gap between domestic and international markets [7] - The average price for imported cotton was 73.62 cents/pound, down 0.7% month-on-month, with a significant price gap of 673 CNY compared to the domestic cotton price index [7][10] Group 5: Cotton Yarn Pricing and Inventory Management - Cotton yarn prices increased in line with rising cotton prices, with the average price for 32-count pure cotton yarn at 20,901 CNY/ton, up 337 CNY month-on-month [10] - Due to limited new orders and year-end cash flow pressures, some spinning mills increased their inventory management efforts [10]