费城联储主席：若通胀趋缓、就业企稳 美联储或于年内降息

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Anna Paulson, reiterated that if the U.S. economy achieves her expectations of easing inflation and stabilizing the job market, the Federal Reserve may lower short-term interest rates later this year [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Paulson expressed an optimistic baseline expectation, forecasting a stable job market, economic growth around 2%, and inflation rates to fall back to approximately 2% by the end of the year [1][3]. - She indicated that if these targets are met, a modest adjustment to the federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve would likely be appropriate [1][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - Current monetary policy is described as "slightly restrictive," which is expected to help bring inflation down to the target level of 2% [2][4]. - Paulson supports the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to lower rates by a total of 75 basis points last year, citing rising risks in the job market as a key reason for this support [2][4]. Group 3: Job Market Insights - The job market is seen as a better indicator of economic momentum, with current weak hiring conditions not aligning with strong GDP data [5]. - Paulson noted that while the job market is gradually cooling, it has not collapsed, indicating a complex economic landscape [2][4].