新刊速读 | 如何看待宏大叙事对资产定价的重塑

Core Viewpoint - The narrative economy is increasingly influencing global asset pricing, with themes such as weakening dollar credit, gold as a monetary anchor, supply chain restructuring, AI infrastructure, and the new role of non-ferrous metals driving market performance [1][2][3] Group 1: Popular Narratives in 2025 - The five main narratives shaping the financial market include: 1. Long-term weakening of dollar credit, driven by a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [2] 2. Concerns over U.S. economic sustainability due to new policy frameworks, including tax increases and deficit expansion [2] 3. Gold becoming a new anchor for the monetary system, with central banks increasing gold reserves to mitigate dollar risk [2] 4. Restructuring of global supply chains due to geopolitical risks and rising tariffs, leading to increased value in key raw materials [2] 5. AI becoming a foundational infrastructure for industry transformation, impacting demand for non-ferrous metals [2] Group 2: Impact of Narratives on Asset Pricing - The five narratives are interconnected, forming a narrative constellation that influences asset pricing through: 1. Weakening dollar credit prompting a shift from credit currencies to physical assets like gold [3] 2. Supply chain restructuring emphasizing safety and resilience over efficiency [3] 3. AI infrastructure driving demand for non-ferrous metals, elevating their status from cyclical commodities to essential resources [3] Group 3: Mechanisms of Narrative Influence - Narratives affect asset pricing through various channels: 1. Reshaping reasonable price ranges by altering investor perceptions of asset safety and scarcity premiums [4] 2. Amplifying cyclical trends through risk premiums and volatility, leading to narrative premiums in related asset classes [4] 3. Reconstructing price relationships across assets based on thematic connections rather than independent fundamentals [4] Group 4: Recent Trends in Narratives - Since October 2025, mainstream narratives have shown signs of weakening, with: 1. A rebound in the dollar reflecting a technical correction and hawkish monetary policy [7] 2. A break in the upward trend of gold prices due to changing geopolitical and trade dynamics [7] 3. A cooling of supply chain narratives amid trade negotiations [7] 4. A shift in market sentiment regarding large tech companies, indicating a potential break in their positive cycle [7] 5. Increased divergence in demand for non-ferrous metals, with both long-term growth expectations and oversupply pressures [7] Group 5: Future Narratives - Potential new narratives for the next five years include: 1. Industrialization in developing countries, providing investment opportunities for companies [9] 2. The second wave of globalization for Chinese companies, with a focus on global orders outpacing domestic ones [9] 3. The acceleration of AI applications, leading to new industry transformations [9] 4. An upgrade in service consumption, with a long-term trend towards increased service sector contributions [9] Group 6: Challenges and Responses in Research Methodology - The influence of narratives challenges traditional investment research methodologies, necessitating: 1. Incorporating narratives as identifiable variables alongside fundamentals and valuations [10][11] 2. Differentiating narrative levels to align funding duration and risk-return profiles [11] 3. Adopting momentum strategies during narrative popularity phases [11] 4. Establishing objective indicators for narrative validation, ensuring data-driven decision-making [11] 5. Maintaining awareness of valuation constraints to prevent excessive risk exposure [11]