New Home Sales & Permits Down: What's Next for the Housing Market?

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is facing challenges, particularly on the supply side, with mixed signals from new residential sales and building permits data [1][8] - The market is adjusting to the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September 2025, with expectations of further cuts boosting optimism among homebuyers, although homebuilders are not fully capitalizing on this trend [2] Sales and Prices - New single-family home sales in October 2025 were 737,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.1% from September 2025 but an increase of 18.7% from October 2024 [3] - The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2025 was $392,300, down 3.3% month over month and 8% year over year, while the average sales price was $498,000, up 3% from September 2025 but down 4.6% year over year [3] Building Permits and Housing Starts - Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October 2025 were 1,412,000, reflecting a decline of 0.2% month over month and 1.1% year over year [4] - Privately-owned housing starts were 1,246,000 in October 2025, indicating a 4.6% decline from September 2025 and a 7.8% fall from October 2024 [5] Mortgage Rates - The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was reported at 6.17% for the week ending October 30, 2025, down from 6.34% the previous week and significantly lower than 6.72% a year prior [6] Market Outlook - The U.S. housing industry is expected to improve in early 2026 due to declining mortgage rates and new government policies aimed at reducing housing costs, including a $200 billion mortgage bond purchase initiative [7] - Despite potential improvements, ongoing macroeconomic challenges related to tariffs and inflation are impacting supply, as evidenced by declining building permits and housing starts [8] Company Performance - Homebuilders such as Century Communities, Dream Finders Homes, and Green Brick Partners are positioned to benefit from favorable market fundamentals despite current macro headwinds [11] - Century Communities has seen a 13.1% increase in share price over the past six months, with EPS estimates for 2026 expected to grow 34.2% year over year [12][13] - Dream Finders Homes has experienced a 29.2% decline in share price over the past six months, with EPS estimates for 2026 expected to grow 4.6% year over year [13][14] - Green Brick Partners has seen an 11.2% increase in share price over the past six months, with EPS estimates for 2026 expected to decrease slightly by 0.3% year over year [14][15]