产能充裕叠加需求不足 上半年生猪市场或延续磨底

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is entering its traditional peak season with the Lunar New Year approaching, but the market is still facing oversupply, leading to weak pig prices [2][5]. Industry Overview - The overall trend in the domestic pig market has been weak since 2025, with many companies reporting a decline in sales prices and revenues, some by as much as 30% [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that despite ongoing "anti-involution" policies in the livestock sector, the fundamental imbalance of oversupply and insufficient demand remains unchanged [2][8]. Company Performance - In 2025, Wens Foodstuffs Group sold 40.47 million pigs, generating revenue of 61.48 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 13.71 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.45% in revenue and 17.95% in price [3]. - Muyuan Foods sold 6.98 million pigs in December 2025, with an average price of 11.41 yuan/kg, down 25.38% year-on-year, and a revenue drop of 36.06% [4]. - Tian Kang Bio reported a 5.34% increase in sales volume to 3.19 million pigs, but revenue fell by 10.69% to 4.55 billion yuan [4]. Price Trends - The average price of lean pigs in 2025 was 13.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 17.97% year-on-year, with prices remaining low and companies facing losses [5][6]. - As of January 9, 2026, the national average price for pigs was 12.51 yuan/kg, showing a slight recovery due to seasonal demand, but losses persist in the industry [5][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs remains high, with a reported 36.92 million pigs in large-scale farms as of December 2025, a slight decrease from the previous month but an increase year-on-year [8]. - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term price support due to reduced supply, the overall market remains oversupplied, limiting significant price increases [8][9]. Cost Factors - The prices of corn and soybean meal, key raw materials for pig farming, significantly influence the industry's profitability. High prices for these inputs could exacerbate losses, while a decrease could improve profit margins [9]. - Current prices for feed ingredients are stable, with limited impact on costs, but fluctuations in market supply and demand will continue to drive profitability [9].