粤开证券罗志恒：2026年中国经济将在动能转换与预期修复中平稳前行

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for China in 2026, emphasizing the potential for stable and healthy growth driven by export resilience and infrastructure investment [2][3]. Economic Growth Drivers - The two main supports for economic growth in 2026 are the evolving resilience of exports and the stabilizing role of infrastructure investment [2]. - China's exports are undergoing an upgrade, with a diversification of markets and a shift in product structure from consumer goods to intermediate and capital goods [2]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a good growth rate, supported by a proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy [3]. Investment Focus Areas - Future investments are likely to focus on four key areas: basic livelihood security (healthcare, education, elderly care, housing), consumption upgrade (shift from traditional goods to service and experience consumption), human capital development (improving education quality and vocational training), and sustainable development (supporting childbirth and addressing aging) [4]. Challenges Ahead - The stability of the real estate market and local government debt issues remain significant challenges that need to be addressed [4]. Supply and Demand Balance - There is a notable discrepancy between macroeconomic stability and microeconomic sentiment, which is a global challenge [5][6]. - The Chinese economy is characterized by strong supply capabilities and weak demand, leading to low price levels and a mismatch between nominal income growth and actual economic performance [6]. Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumer habits are shifting from basic needs to development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented consumption, with service consumption expected to grow faster than goods consumption [6]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is anticipated to continue the positive trend observed since late 2024, supported by improving corporate profits, enhanced market regulations, ample liquidity, and rising risk appetite [7]. - Two main investment themes are identified: technology growth (AI, new energy, commercial aerospace) and the non-ferrous metals cycle, which may present investment opportunities due to supply-demand gaps [7]. Investment Strategy for Individuals - Individual investors are advised to align their investments with their understanding and risk tolerance, emphasizing that the ultimate goal of investing is to improve quality of life [8].