Q4 Earnings Approaching: Sector ETFs Under Pressure

Group 1: Earnings Overview - The Q4 earnings season is expected to begin with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, BNY Mellon, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reporting results, with corporate earnings expectations strengthening over recent quarters [1] - Total S&P 500 earnings for Q4 2025 are projected to rise by 7.9% year over year, supported by an 8.2% increase in revenues, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth for the index [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Aerospace, tech, and finance sectors are anticipated to perform well in Q4, while seven of the 16 Zacks sectors are expected to underperform, notably Autos with a projected earnings decline of 24%, Transportation with an 8.5% decline, and Consumer Staples with a 4.1% decline [3] - The Auto sector is expected to see a 24% decline in earnings due to a 7.3% decrease in revenues, following a 20.7% earnings loss in Q3 2025 despite 4% revenue growth [4] - The Transportation sector is projected to lose 8.5% in earnings with only 1.2% revenue growth, following a minimal earnings gain of 0.3% in Q3 [7] - The Consumer Staples sector is expected to post a 4% earnings decline despite 2.4% revenue growth, following a 0.9% earnings drop in Q3 [8] Group 3: Sector Challenges - The Auto sector faces challenges from increased costs due to tariffs and softening demand, with lower-income buyers likely to pull back on purchases [6] - The Transportation sector is experiencing earnings pressure from subdued freight demand, attributed to earlier inventory buildup from trade policy uncertainty [7] - Consumer Staples companies are under pressure from inflation, a soft labor market, and falling affordability, impacting their pricing power [8]