Gold Has A January Secret — And Its Latest Breakout Is No Accident - SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (ARCA:GLDM)

Core Insights - Gold exhibits a "January effect," historically showing reliable performance at the start of the year, with average returns of 1.79% since the early 1970s, nearly three times its long-term monthly average [2] - Gold has posted positive returns in close to 60% of all Januaries since 1971, increasing to nearly 70% since 2000, contrasting with the weakening January effect observed in equities [2] Performance Analysis - Gold has already rallied 7% in January, following a significant 65% surge last year, indicating strong early-year performance [4] - The performance of gold can be negatively impacted by a strong US dollar, as seen in years like 2021 and 2022 when gold stumbled due to rising real rates and dollar strength [4] Seasonal Trends - After January, gold typically experiences a weaker period from late spring to early summer, known as the "summer doldrums," which historically represents the weakest trading window [5] - Activity tends to pick up again from August to October, which ranks among gold's strongest periods, second only to January, as Asian buying resumes and the Indian wedding season approaches [6] Market Dynamics - Industry veterans emphasize the importance of understanding the cyclicality and seasonality of gold, suggesting strategic buying during tax-selling periods or in the summer [7] - The calendar remains significant for gold, with January being a time when historical trends favor bullion [7] Current Market Status - The SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:GLDM) is up 5.62% year-to-date, reflecting positive market sentiment towards gold [8]