避险与货币宽松预期驱动 机构认为金属价格后市易涨难跌

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is experiencing a significant price surge, driven by risk aversion and monetary policy expectations, with potential for continued long-term price increases despite short-term volatility risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Metal Price Trends - As of January 14, 2026, London spot silver reached a peak of $91.55 per ounce, while gold approached $4639.72 per ounce, marking year-to-date increases of 25.91% and 7.39% respectively [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw three-month tin and copper prices surpass $52,000 per ton and $13,400 per ton, respectively, both setting historical highs [1]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai tin futures hit a limit-up price of 413,170 yuan per ton, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 27% [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The recent surge in precious and non-ferrous metals is attributed to a combination of heightened risk aversion and expectations surrounding monetary policy [2][3]. - The investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to a decline in the dollar index, which supported the rise in dollar-denominated metals [3]. - Global central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, providing a solid foundation for precious metal prices [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with a notable decrease in inventories and a shift in registered warehouse receipts, indicating increased market sentiment to hold [3]. - In the tin market, increased trading activity and price surges are linked to long-term supply disruptions and strategic investments in sectors like semiconductors [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that precious and non-ferrous metal prices will likely experience upward trends, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and macroeconomic factors [5]. - Short-term volatility is anticipated, with potential risks including uncertainties around the timing of Fed rate cuts and market positioning in gold [5].