全球煤炭需求将温和下降

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report "Coal 2025" indicates that coal will face increasing competition from renewable energy, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and nuclear energy, leading to a plateau in global coal demand by 2030, with a mild decline expected thereafter [1][2] Group 1: Global Coal Demand Trends - Global coal demand is projected to grow by 0.5% year-on-year to 885 million tons by 2025, but significant divergence in consumption patterns is observed across major markets [1] - In the U.S., coal demand has declined at an average rate of 6% annually over the past 15 years, but is expected to increase by 8% in 2025 due to rising natural gas prices and supportive federal policies [1][3] - India's coal consumption is expected to decline in 2025 due to seasonal factors, while the EU is projected to see a reduced decline of about 2% in coal consumption due to insufficient hydropower and wind energy [1][2] Group 2: Future Projections - By 2030, global coal consumption is expected to decrease by 3% compared to 2025, with coal-fired power generation falling below 2021 levels [2] - China's coal demand is anticipated to decline as the country aims for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and continues its transition to green energy [2] - India is expected to see absolute growth in coal consumption, with a projected annual increase of 3%, potentially exceeding 20 million tons [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing - Global coal imports are expected to decline by approximately 5% in 2025, with developed economies continuing to reduce imports, while India's steel industry will drive strong demand for coking coal [3][4] - The competition among coal-exporting countries is expected to intensify due to shrinking coal imports and lower prices driven by abundant LNG supply [4] - Coal prices have been declining, with European prices expected to drop by about 10% and Asian prices by approximately 20% in 2025, narrowing profit margins for coal producers [4] Group 4: Uncertainties and Industry Outlook - The IEA maintains that despite unusual developments in key coal markets, its long-term forecasts remain largely unchanged, with global coal demand expected to plateau before a gradual decline [4][5] - Significant uncertainties exist regarding electricity demand growth, policy choices, and the pace of coal substitution in various sectors, which could lead to higher-than-expected coal demand [5] - The profitability of coal companies has diminished in the current low-price environment, and merger and acquisition activities in the global coal industry have nearly stalled since 2024 [5]