国际能源署发布报告预计——全球煤炭需求将温和下降

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report "Coal 2025" indicates that coal will face increasing competition from renewable energy, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and nuclear energy, leading to a plateau in global coal demand by 2030, with a mild decline expected thereafter [1][2] Group 1: Global Coal Demand Trends - Global coal demand is projected to grow by 0.5% year-on-year to 885 million tons by 2025, but significant divergence in consumption patterns is observed across major markets [1] - In the U.S., coal demand has decreased at an average rate of 6% annually over the past 15 years, but is expected to rise by 8% in 2025 due to rising natural gas prices and government policies supporting coal plants [1][3] - India's coal consumption is expected to decline in 2025 due to seasonal factors, while the EU's coal consumption decline is expected to narrow to about 2% in 2025 after significant drops in 2023 and 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Future Projections - By 2030, global coal consumption is expected to decrease by 3% compared to 2025, with coal-fired power generation falling below 2021 levels [2] - China's coal demand is anticipated to decline as the country aims for carbon peak by 2030, while India's coal consumption is projected to grow at an average rate of 3% annually, potentially exceeding an increase of 20 million tons [2] - Southeast Asia is expected to see the fastest growth in coal demand, with an annual growth rate exceeding 4% before 2030 [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing - Global coal imports are expected to decline by approximately 5% in 2025, with developed economies continuing to see a decrease in imports [3][4] - The competition among coal-exporting countries is expected to intensify due to shrinking coal imports and lower prices driven by abundant LNG supply [4] - Coal prices have been declining, with European prices expected to drop by about 10% and Asian prices by about 20% in 2025, approaching cost levels and narrowing profit margins [4] Group 4: Uncertainties and Industry Outlook - The IEA notes that despite unusual developments in key coal markets, the overall forecast for global coal demand remains largely unchanged, with expectations of a plateau followed by a mild decline [4][5] - Significant uncertainties exist regarding electricity demand growth, policy choices, and the pace of coal substitution in various sectors, which could lead to higher-than-expected coal demand [5] - The coal industry's profitability has diminished in the current low-price environment, and merger and acquisition activities have nearly stalled since 2024 [5]