Bull vs Bear: Can Foreign Equities Repeat in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the performance of foreign equities in 2026, with contrasting views on whether they can replicate the strong returns seen in 2025. One analyst expresses skepticism about the sustainability of last year's gains, while the other remains optimistic about continued favorable conditions for international strategies [1][7]. Performance Metrics - The S&P World ex-U.S. Index achieved a 34.5% return as of January 9, 2026. Notable ETFs included the KraneShares Emerging Markets Consumer Technology Index ETF (KEMQ) with a 56.2% return, the Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF (AVDV) at 49.4%, and the VanEck Africa Index (AFK) with a remarkable 74.7% return in 2025 [3][4]. Market Conditions - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy continues to drive investor interest in foreign equities. The U.S. job market showed weak performance, adding only 50,000 jobs in December 2025, which was below expectations and marked the lowest job growth in five years [9][10]. - Geopolitical risks are highlighted as a significant concern for foreign equities in 2026, with potential conflicts in regions like Venezuela and Ukraine posing threats to market stability [23][25][26]. Investment Opportunities - Diversification through international markets is emphasized, with both developed and emerging markets presenting strong opportunities. Investing in a mix of these markets can enhance portfolio diversification [11][19]. - The American Century Quality Diversified International ETF (QINT) is noted for its strategy of investing in large- and mid-cap stocks outside the U.S. with strong fundamentals, achieving a 38.02% return year-to-date as of December 31, 2025 [22][21]. Sector Analysis - The discussion includes a focus on sectors such as precious metals and technology, with a cautionary note on the sustainability of returns from mining-focused ETFs. The potential for growth in AI and defense sectors is also mentioned, driven by increased spending commitments from NATO members [12][18][17]. Regional Insights - Analysts express concerns about Europe's growth potential, citing slower earnings growth and structural challenges. The outlook for Asia, particularly India, is also cautious, with projections indicating a slowdown compared to 2025 [14][15]. - China's market is highlighted for its resilience and potential growth opportunities, particularly in the tech sector, with expectations for a new five-year plan to stimulate the economy [32][33].