沥青多头净持仓连续上行，华东重交沥青高端价上涨

Market Performance - The BU 2603 main contract experienced high volatility, closing at 3168, an increase of 0.88% from the previous day, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 1.1% [2][37] - The next month contract 2606 also saw a rise of 0.60% compared to the previous day's closing [2][37] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong is 3100 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6% and a cumulative increase of 1.0% over the past week [2][37] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price remains stable at 3200 CNY/ton, with a basis of +32 CNY/ton, accumulating a 7-day increase of 35 CNY/ton [2][37] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded at -159 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 47 CNY/ton [2][37] - The main BU contract closed up by 0.9%, while Brent decreased by 0.6% [2][37] Fundamental Changes - According to Longzhong's spot price statistics, the low-end price of heavy asphalt in East China has stabilized at 3150 CNY/ton for four consecutive trading days, with the high-end price rising to 3230 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.3% [3][38] - The net short positions for the 03 contract have been decreasing since January 8, while net long positions have been fluctuating upwards, maintaining a long-short ratio of 0.52 [3][38] Geopolitical Developments - Major traders Vitol and Trafigura have received special licenses from the U.S. to supply Venezuelan oil to Chinese and Indian refiners, aiding in the sale of large amounts of floating and in-transit Venezuelan oil [4][38] - The U.S. government has applied for court orders to seize more oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade, which may accelerate the dilution of floating and in-transit inventories [4][38] Short-term Outlook - The near-month contract will continue to focus on geopolitical developments [5][39] - The strategy is to maintain a range-bound approach, with a focus on buying the near-month 03 contract on dips and the far-month 06 contract [6][40]