招商证券:落后产能有望出清 化工行业盈利能力或迎来边际改善
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2026-01-14 23:38

Core Viewpoint - Since 2021, the chemical industry has seen increased capital expenditure due to high prices of chemical products, leading to a new round of capacity expansion. However, from 2022 onwards, as new capacities were launched and oil prices fell from their peaks, the prices of most chemical products have continued to decline, resulting in decreased profitability for domestic companies. [1] Group 1 - The chemical industry has planned significant capital expenditures since 2021, driven by high product prices [1] - From 2022, the launch of new capacities and falling oil prices have led to a continuous decline in chemical product prices [1] - Domestic companies have adopted a strategy of price competition to gain market share, which has further pressured overall profitability [1] Group 2 - As of 2024, most chemical product prices are stabilizing at low levels, and company profitability remains under pressure [1] - With the introduction of future growth stabilization plans, some outdated capacities are expected to be eliminated, leading to a marginal improvement in the overall supply-demand dynamics of the industry [1] - The profitability of products is anticipated to improve as a result of these changes [1]