Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-14 23:51Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that due to a slight recovery in sow production capacity in 2024, the overall trend of pork prices will continue to decline in 2025, although there may still be slight profits for the year [1] Industry Analysis - The industry is experiencing a dual pressure of passive capacity reduction due to "anti-involution" and active capacity reduction driven by pork prices falling below cash costs [1] - Sow production capacity began to be reduced in July and is expected to accelerate from October [1] - It is anticipated that pork prices may gradually recover in the second half of 2026 [1] Cost Dynamics - There remains a significant variance in breeding costs within the industry, with high-quality pig enterprises continuing to expand their cost advantages [1] - Cash flow for these enterprises is expected to improve continuously, aiding in the repair of balance sheets and enhancing intrinsic value [1]