美联储褐皮书描绘“稳健软着陆”路线图：美国经济回暖 就业波澜不惊

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight to moderate economic recovery across most regions in the U.S., supporting the narrative of a "soft landing" for the economy, with the labor market showing signs of gradual improvement [1][3]. Economic Growth - The Beige Book reports that economic activity is increasing at a "slight to moderate" pace, with no significant signs of recession, which is crucial for the "soft landing" narrative [3]. - Most regions reported stable non-farm employment levels, with moderate wage growth returning to normal levels [2][3]. Labor Market - Despite some regions noting a slowdown in hiring, overall employment levels remain stable, and wage growth is moderate, indicating a balanced labor market without significant overheating or mass layoffs [3][4]. - The labor market is described as showing signs of slight recovery, with some Federal Reserve officials cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the 2% target [4][5]. Inflation and Pricing - Recent CPI data shows a steady decline in inflation, with price growth across most economic regions described as "moderate" rather than significantly rising [2][3]. - Some businesses are beginning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers, but overall inflation trends remain downward [3][6]. Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with traders now anticipating two rate cuts in 2026, with the first expected in June rather than March [2][5]. - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have adjusted their forecasts for rate cuts to June and September, emphasizing the need for inflation to return to the 2% target before any policy actions [5][6]. Regional Highlights - Boston reports an increase in temporary hiring, with expectations for many positions to become permanent [6]. - New York notes that increased tariffs have led to cost pass-through to customers, affecting pricing strategies [6]. - Philadelphia highlights ongoing consumer budget pressures across various sectors, including housing and healthcare [6]. - Cleveland sees a rebound in demand for manufactured goods, driven by AI data center construction [6]. - Atlanta mentions increased AI adoption to enhance productivity, although significant impacts on employment may take time [6].