《周末小结系列》: 美元难有大趋势，美股迎来考验，原油和日元在交易什么？

Group 1 - The market appears stable with no significant volatility, but there are underlying changes that have not been fully priced in by the market [2][3] - The macroeconomic fundamentals show that while the manufacturing sector struggles, the service sector remains strong, indicating no acceleration in the U.S. economy but also no recession [3][4] - The "no firing, no hiring" trend is not detrimental to risk assets, as the Federal Reserve has reasons to maintain a loose monetary policy [4] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar has potential for short-term rebounds but is unlikely to experience significant trends, with the market's confidence remaining fragile [5][7] - The real risk for the dollar lies in changes within the Federal Reserve's structure rather than economic data [9][10] - The market is currently viewing the dollar as a trading asset rather than a long-term investment, with potential opportunities in the British pound [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has shifted from defensive to cyclical stocks, with a focus on earnings realization rather than storytelling [13][15] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, particularly for banks, with significant reports expected in late January and early February [18][21] - The market's low expectations for fourth-quarter earnings may reduce the risk of collective disappointments [21][23] Group 4 - Oil prices are facing underestimation of supply-side challenges, particularly regarding the recovery of production from Venezuela [29] - The difficulty in restoring production and geopolitical influences may alter supply-demand expectations, increasing the probability of a mid-term bottom for oil prices [29][31] Group 5 - In Japan, discussions about the central bank's interest rate policies are becoming less relevant as fiscal changes take precedence [32][33] - The market is pricing the yen in a manner similar to emerging markets, with short-term interest rates rising while the yen weakens [33][34]