Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's export growth in December exceeded expectations and previous values, primarily driven by strong resilience in non-US exports, with significant contributions from the semiconductor and automotive supply chains [1] - The report highlights that the drag from labor-intensive products on overall exports has slightly increased, while import growth in December also surpassed expectations and previous values, likely linked to a recovery in manufacturing sentiment [1] - It is noted that the import growth rate for bulk commodities such as natural gas, crude oil, and coal has increased compared to previous values, while the growth rate for iron ore and copper imports has declined [1] Group 2 - The resilience of non-US exports, combined with a mild recovery in the US economy, suggests strong support for the export fundamentals in 2026, although potential adjustments in trade policies towards China by certain countries influenced by the US should be monitored [1] - The report anticipates that the adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products on January 9 may provide certain support for the export growth rate of these products in the first quarter of 2026 [1]
中信证券:外贸出口增长的韧性进一步夯实