The housing market is at a turning point: the 3% mortgage era is fading

Core Insights - The number of homeowners with mortgages above 6% has surpassed those with rates under 3% for the first time, indicating a significant shift in the housing market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Mortgage Rate Trends - The last period when mortgage rates were below 3% was from July 2020 to September 2021, and rates have not fallen below this threshold since 1971 [2]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, 20% of outstanding mortgages had an interest rate below 3%, while 21.2% had rates above 6% [3][4]. - Approximately 31.5% of outstanding mortgages carry interest rates between 3% and 4%, 17.1% fall in the 4% to 5% range, and 10.2% are between 5% and 6% [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Home Prices - The prolonged lock-in effect is diminishing as fewer homeowners retain low borrowing rates, which is expected to gradually change market dynamics [6][8]. - Despite some improvements in housing supply, about 80% of outstanding loans still carry below-market rates, making homeowners reluctant to sell and buy again due to significantly higher potential monthly payments [8]. - The market is moving towards a more balanced state, with additional supply easing affordability challenges and some local markets classified as a "buyer's market" [10][11].