光大期货：1月15日有色金属日报

Copper - Overnight LME copper showed a rebound after initial declines, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable. The macroeconomic data from the US indicates a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail sales for November, surpassing the expected 0.5%, reflecting consumer resilience [12] - The US NAR reported that December's existing home sales reached an annualized 4.35 million units, the highest since February 2023, exceeding expectations of 4.22 million and the previous value of 4.13 million [12] - LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons to 141,625 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 3,710 tons to 484,066 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 27,212 tons to 149,339 tons [12] - Copper prices are rising again, but downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, focusing on essential needs. The expanding import losses and the gradually opening export window may benefit first-quarter export demand [12] - The US Supreme Court did not rule on the Trump tariff policy, temporarily alleviating market concerns about tariffs, which helped stabilize copper prices [12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 6.73% to $18,785 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 5.62% to 148,930 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 510 tons to 284,658 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 836 tons to 40,272 tons [13] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a reduction in the nickel ore production target for 2026 from 364 million tons to approximately 250-260 million tons [13] - The rapid price increase has led to a significant rise in primary nickel production, up 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, which may exert pressure on market prices [13][5] - The tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia is expected to create a global supply-demand gap for primary nickel, potentially driving prices higher [5] Aluminum & Alumina - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,788 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a decline, with AL2603 at 24,665 yuan per ton, down 0.32% [14] - The SMM alumina price fell to 2,654 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot spot premiums expanded to 80 yuan per ton [14] - High inventory levels at alumina plants have led to low premium procurement sentiment, continuing to pressure costs [14] - The end of environmental controls and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to increased exports, while aluminum ingot inventory pressure is easing [14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,755 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The reference price for industrial silicon remained stable at 9,628 yuan per ton [15] - Polysilicon prices experienced a decline, with the main contract at 48,945 yuan per ton, down 1.46% [15] - The Xinjiang region's major factories are entering maintenance periods, leading to increased inventory transfer to intermediate channels and rising hidden inventories [15] - The market is experiencing a cooling of speculative sentiment, with limited upside price potential for polysilicon [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 3.53% to 161,940 yuan per ton, while spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,500 yuan to 163,000 yuan per ton [16] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with spodumene and lithium mica production also rising [16] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing [16] - Despite rising raw material prices potentially suppressing terminal demand, the overall market sentiment remains bullish on lithium prices due to low downstream inventory and speculative demand [16]