双重压力下SC原油承压！中东过剩 + 美委风波，价差或持续弱势

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has imposed sanctions and seized Venezuelan oil tankers, leading to a potential intervention in Venezuela's oil industry by allowing major U.S. oil companies to invest billions to restore production, with limited immediate impact on international oil prices but potential long-term production growth for Venezuela [1][2]. Short-term Impact on Venezuela's Oil Exports - Venezuela's current oil production ranges between 900,000 to 1,100,000 barrels per day, with approximately 800,000 barrels per day allocated for export [2]. - In December 2025, Venezuelan oil exports decreased by 280,000 barrels per day to 550,000 barrels per day due to U.S. sanctions and tanker seizures [2]. - The U.S. embargo is expected to keep Venezuelan oil exports low in January 2026, with a potential recovery starting in February [2]. Long-term Production Potential for Venezuela - U.S. oil companies like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil may restore production in Venezuela, potentially increasing output [3]. - Chevron's current production in Venezuela is 250,000 barrels per day, with the possibility to increase to 300,000 barrels per day in the short term [3]. - Significant challenges remain for production increases, including the need for substantial investment (over $100 billion) and a stable political environment [3]. - If conditions improve, Venezuela's oil production could increase by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day within six months, and potentially reach 1.5 million barrels per day within two years [3]. Middle East Market Dynamics - The Brent-Dubai futures spread has widened to its largest level since August 2025, indicating increased supply pressure [4]. - Saudi Aramco's official selling prices are expected to decrease, with a 35% increase in long-term supply to Chinese refineries in January [4]. - The Middle East market is experiencing oversupply, which is expected to continue affecting SC crude oil prices negatively [4].